Q&A #1: Is John Tierney’s Time Up?

Welcome to Ask Me Anything Day! First question comes from “Andrew Carden,” who asks:

What are the odds John Tierney prevails again in 2014, both in the primary and general?

I’m kind of stumped on this at the moment. On the one hand, the North Shore congressman has now survived two elections since the family gambling-business scandal broke, and there hasn’t been any additional news on it since the 2012 election, so you would think the trouble has passed. On the other hand, he kind of got lucky in 2012—the national Republicans overplayed their hand, and heavy Democratic turnout for President Obama and Elizabeth Warren helped a lot—and the generally Independent/Republican leanings of the district are likely to be more evident in the mid-term year (especially with Swampscott’s own topping the GOP gubernatorial ticket).

Seth Moulton certainly looks like a serious primary challenger to me, and I always like to see Marisa DeFranco stumping, but my guess is that Tierney gets through that phase. The final, a rematch with Richard Tisei, is tougher to predict, but I give Tisei the edge at this early stage.

Odds? I’ll say 40% chance Tierney gets another term in office.

Read more from today’s Ask Bernstein Anything >>