The Delegates Are High on Steve Grossman

Take this with a large grain of salt because it is not a scientific poll. But, a survey of delegates to the upcoming Massachusetts Democratic convention suggests that Steve Grossman is poised to lead the voting for governor, with Don Berwick and Martha Coakley running even with each other, with enough support to qualify for the September primary ballot.

Joe Avellone and Juliette Kayyem trail, according to these results, and might be hard-pressed to receive the necessary 15 percent.

The survey, conducted by interactive voice response (IVR)—a robo-poll—on behalf of a candidate in a different primary contest, received responses from 662 delegates, or more than 10 percent. There is no assurance, however, that the respondents are representative of the entire group.

If accurate, the results show that Grossman, although the choice of about a third of the respondents, is well short of the 50 percent he would need to win a first-ballot endorsement from the party. He could reach that level on subsequent ballots.

Berwick, essentially tied with Coakley in the survey at 20 percent, could easily finish second if he can win over a good share of the undecided delegates.

Kayyem, on the other hand, appears to be short of where she needs to be, at just under 10 percent. With only 11 percent undecided according to this survey, she would be unlikely to add enough by swaying them at the June 14 convention. Avellone is not far behind her, at 7 percent.

All of those numbers, even if an accurate reflection of delegates’ current thinking, might change in the brief amount of time remaining. People closely involved with Democratic party politics have told me recently that many delegates’ preferences seem soft, and very much open to persuasion as they pay closer attention in the final run-up to the convention.

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