Q&A #6: 2014 Races, My View

“Pete Christopher” asks:

What (if anything) from the most recent insiders poll do you disagree with most?

Well, I am not calling them idiots this time, if that’s what you’re wondering.

I know a lot of people think I’m crazy for this, but I think Charlie Baker is a better than 50 percent chance to win next November—maybe 55 percent. I think the insiders have the gubernatorial primary more or less right. I think there will likely be another serious Democratic attorney general candidate, and I’m not sure I would make Warren Tolman quite as strong a candidate as the insiders think.

Also, I think a great deal depends upon whether Ayanna Pressley decides that she has the heart and desire to spend a year shaking hands with people in places like Athol and Tewksbury and Attleboro. If the answer is yes—that is, if she takes the advice that certain Kerry people have been putting in her ear all year and runs for Lieutenant Governor—then the whole tenor of the cycle changes. All of a sudden there’s a superstar woman who could, frankly, make Martha Coakley feel a little less necessary from a gender perspective. Pressley could restore the kind of general-election gender voting gap that Elizabeth Warren got, which I suspect Baker and a female LG pick will otherwise make headway against. You’ve got the potential for a whole different energy to the Democratic ticket than I currently picture. There’s also the potential for some real backlash if Pressley turns out to be a high-profile disaster, either in the primary or general election.

I realize that’s a lot that I’m putting on a potential LG candidate—one by no means assured of even winning the primary. But I’m just sayin’.