Middlesex DA; Anti-Establishment Republicans; Marty Challengers

“Jennifer” asks via email:

Do you have some updated thoughts to the DA’s race in Middlesex and is it still in your opinion..”…perhaps the single best political race of the year..”

Yes, although I’m still waiting for acting District Attorney Marian Ryan to start seriously campaigning—she’s spent all of $13,000 from her campaign committee since she set it up, upon being appointed, about a year ago. I suspect we’ll start to see some action soon; she’s now paying Liberty Square Group as a consultant. Meanwhile, Michael Sullivan is out guns a-blazin’. I had the chance to talk to him just recently, and he confirmed my suspicion that the DA office’s apparent mishandling of Jared Remy is going to be a problem for Ryan.

Also through email, a saucy question from “John”:

How important will it be that the folks who were effective in local elections for GOP (Eno, Ferro, Prunier) have sold out to Charlie Baker for access to institutional power of Mass GOP? Certainly, it muted criticism from them during the Fisher Fiasco (to date).

It does seem to be the case that some on the anti-establishment side of the Republican network are becoming part of the establishment, and I think it’s true that Baker and his team are taking opportunities to co-opt where they can. But to be honest, I think a lot of the anti-establishment MassGOP folks were just not impressed with Fisher. I heard it from delegates at the convention, who were interested in helping the O’Connell/Diehl/Cole/Fattman insurgency but were not voting for Fisher. So, I think those anti-establishment Republicans know that control of the state government will go to either Baker or some corrupt socialist, and they’re willing to play ball to help Baker—while also working separately for the local candidates they really like.

And “James” emails this query:

Who would present the toughest challenge for Marty in 2017? Assuming Marty is an OK mayor, no major scandals but also not winning raves. And who do you think actually runs against him? Besides Flaherty of course.

I concur with a wise local pol who I cannot name, who said to me that the only profile for a candidate to beat Marty Walsh in 2017 is a racial minority who endorsed Walsh in 2013. That list would include, but is not limited to: Felix Arroyo the younger; John Barros; Charlotte Golar Richie; state senator Linda Dorcena Forry; and city councilor Tito Jackson. If someone like that broke with Marty over perceived failings in the next couple of years and turned and ran against him, we’d have ourselves a race. Other than that, sure, Michael Flaherty or someone else will probably take a shot and hope that some great disaster strikes Walsh and/or the city before the election.

< < Read more from today’s Ask Bernstein Anything.