Q&A #5: The Clark And Walsh Dominos

“ANSC” asks:

Could you please preview the races for Marty Walsh and (presumably) Katherine Clark’s seats?

A few people asked about Katherine Clark’s state senate seat, which will—let’s not pretend otherwise—be open when she wins the general election for Congress next month. Oh, and by the way, from Twitter “Stephen Doody” asks:

How much will Katherine Clark win by and will the differential be telling of anything?

The margin will be either 3-to-1 or 4-to-1, and all the difference tells is whether four people showed up to vote, or five.

But anyway, state representative Paul Brodeur of Melrose has decided not to run for the 5th Middlesex seat to replace Clark, which basically means I have no freakin’ idea what’s going to happen. Jason Lewis and Christopher Fallon, the other two state reps who live in the district, must be looking at it, but I’ve gotta think there are municipal officials or even activists in Wakefield or Stoneham who might be stronger candidates. I think it’s a district ripe for the GOP to steal back in a special election, despite the redistricting, but I haven’t heard anything coming from that side yet.

Basically what I’m saying is: if you know that area’s political rumor-mill better than I do, send me a note OK?

Walsh’s state rep seat has to shape up still. Dan Hunt is in, and should be a solid candidate. Michael Christopher is out. I don’t think Annissa Essaibi George will end up running; I get the sense that she’s more inclined to wait to see if she inherits a council seat. (Watch for George to be a big Ayanna Pressley booster if those Pressley-for-LG rumors are true.) I’m very curious to see whether Mariama White-Hammond will jump in—she tells me she’ll announce a decision by this coming Wednesday—and if she does, whether Marty is savvy and nimble enough to help clear the way for her. (He does not want this to turn into either a Baker/Galvin/O’Toole-ish proxy battle or a Collins/Dahill/Forry-ish tribal war.) I’d also be kind of interested in someone like Pope Hill’s Phil Carver, if he’s interested.

So, I guess, um, I don’t know what’s going to happen in that one either. Sorry!